Dark Winter

Four months ago, the Anser Institute for Homeland Security hosted an exercise with some of the highest members of American Government security called Dark Winter.

Scenario Details
Date:	December 2002
Current events:	Tensions increased to an all-time high between China and Taiwan, Nuclear Weapons smuggling from the ex-Soviet Union discovered, Iraq suspected of producing biological weapons, Iraq deploys approximately 100,000 troops on the Iraq/Kuwait border.
Situation:	A smallpox outbreak is detected in Oklahoma City.

Assuming the roles of key government officials, players worked in real world situations in order to try and contain the spread of the disease.

Scenario factors include the effect of shutting down borders to commerce when a steady supply of oil is required, what should be communicated to the press, how vaccines are managed/distributed, and the result of the rising panic among the general public.

Smallpox, one of the most contagious and lethal diseases known to mankind, is thought to only exist in laboratories in the USA and Russia. It can be transmitted from an infected person to anyone standing within six feet. Once infected, it cannot be treated and is fatal 30% of the time, the remaining victims can be deeply scarred from the infections or blinded.

The results were pretty amazing, particularly how quickly the disease spread and the resulting actions of both the government and the general public.

Frightening, yes. But the result of the exercise was an identification of how current government structures would likely handle a massive outbreak in a highly mobile world.

The good news (if there is any) is that smallpox is a very well guarded, highly fragile organism that would be difficult to deploy in this way.

It makes for a fascinating read: Dark Winter Final Script (PDF)*.

* Warning: there are some images of smallpox victims in this report.